The premortem (imagine the project already failed)
Before starting, assume the plan has already failed and ask why — then fix it now.
Key takeaways
- What it is: Before starting, assume the plan has already failed and ask why — then fix it now.
- Why it works: A decision-making application: imagining a future failure as already certain (prospective hindsight) loosens overconfidence and surfaces risks that forward-looking optimism hides. Because the failure is treated as fact, people generate more and more specific reasons for it than when merely asked "what might go wrong?" — which lets you strengthen the plan before committing.
- Evidence: Backed by observational / correlational evidence.
- Avoid: Running it as a pessimism ritual that lists risks no one then addresses. The premortem only pays off when the surfaced failures change the plan or become contingencies.
Why it works
A decision-making application: imagining a future failure as already certain (prospective hindsight) loosens overconfidence and surfaces risks that forward-looking optimism hides. Because the failure is treated as fact, people generate more and more specific reasons for it than when merely asked "what might go wrong?" — which lets you strengthen the plan before committing.
How to do it
- 1Before launching a plan, imagine it’s a year later and the plan failed badly.
- 2Write the plausible reasons it failed, as if explaining a known outcome.
- 3Turn the top reasons into changes you make to the plan now, or into if-then contingencies.
What the evidence says
ObservationalThe premortem draws on research showing "prospective hindsight" (imagining an outcome as having already happened) increases the number and specificity of reasons people generate. It’s a recognized decision-quality technique.
Honest caveat: The prospective-hindsight effect is studied; benefits to real-world outcomes depend on whether the identified risks are actually acted on. It’s a planning tool, not an emotional-resilience exercise.
Common mistake
Running it as a pessimism ritual that lists risks no one then addresses. The premortem only pays off when the surfaced failures change the plan or become contingencies.
IX Coach runs a premortem on a plan you’re about to commit to, then helps you convert the top failure reasons into concrete plan changes and if-then contingencies.
Practice this with IX Coach →