Run a premortem before committing
Imagine the decision has already failed — then ask why.
Key takeaways
- What it is: Imagine the decision has already failed — then ask why.
- Why it works: Prospective hindsight — imagining a future event as if it has already occurred — has been shown to generate more and higher-quality reasons for why it might fail than forward-looking risk identification. The mechanism is that imagining the failure as real removes the wishful-thinking filter that blocks identification of uncomfortable risks when the decision has not yet been made.
- Evidence: Backed by observational / correlational evidence.
- Avoid: Running the premortem and identifying failure reasons but then not doing anything about them — the exercise is only useful if it changes the plan or the confidence level.
Why it works
Prospective hindsight — imagining a future event as if it has already occurred — has been shown to generate more and higher-quality reasons for why it might fail than forward-looking risk identification. The mechanism is that imagining the failure as real removes the wishful-thinking filter that blocks identification of uncomfortable risks when the decision has not yet been made.
How to do it
- 1After settling on a decision, say: "It is [time horizon] from now. This decision failed. Why?"
- 2Spend 10 minutes writing every plausible reason for failure, however uncomfortable.
- 3Identify which failure reasons are preventable now and which are inherent to the uncertainty.
- 4Adjust the plan or confidence level based on what the premortem revealed.
What the evidence says
ObservationalKlein (2007) introduced the premortem in a practitioner context; Mitchell et al. (1989) found that prospective hindsight — imagining an event as having already occurred — significantly increased the ability to identify reasons for outcomes.
Honest caveat: Most premortem research is lab-based; field evidence on decision improvement from premortems in organizational settings is limited and mixed.
- — Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Common mistake
Running the premortem and identifying failure reasons but then not doing anything about them — the exercise is only useful if it changes the plan or the confidence level.
IX Coach runs a structured premortem with you, prompting failure scenarios you would be unlikely to generate without the exercise.
Practice this with IX Coach →