Actively watch for escalation of commitment
Each new investment in a losing course makes the next exit harder — catch escalation early.
Key takeaways
- What it is: Each new investment in a losing course makes the next exit harder — catch escalation early.
- Why it works: Staw’s research on escalation of commitment shows that decision-makers responsible for a prior bad decision invest more in it than unrelated decision-makers would, and do so in increasing amounts. Each additional investment becomes its own sunk cost, compounding the trap. Recognizing the escalation pattern early — before it becomes a multi-year trap — is substantially easier than stopping later.
- Evidence: Backed by observational / correlational evidence.
- Avoid: Noticing the escalation pattern only in retrospect — after each successive investment was too small to seem alarming on its own but added up to a large total.
Why it works
Staw’s research on escalation of commitment shows that decision-makers responsible for a prior bad decision invest more in it than unrelated decision-makers would, and do so in increasing amounts. Each additional investment becomes its own sunk cost, compounding the trap. Recognizing the escalation pattern early — before it becomes a multi-year trap — is substantially easier than stopping later.
How to do it
- 1Periodically review ongoing projects and commitments with the question: "Am I investing more to justify prior investment?"
- 2Track successive investment levels: if each round is larger than the last without proportional expected return improvement, that is an escalation signal.
- 3Name the pattern explicitly to yourself: "I am escalating this commitment."
- 4Seek outside evaluation at the first escalation signal rather than waiting for crisis.
What the evidence says
ObservationalEscalation of commitment is a well-documented organizational and individual phenomenon, particularly when decision-makers are personally responsible for the initial commitment. Staw (1976, 1981) provides the foundational experimental and organizational research.
Honest caveat: Escalation effects are strongest when personal responsibility and social visibility are high; individual private decisions show smaller effects.
- — Staw (1976), knee-deep in the big muddy: a study of escalating commitment, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
Common mistake
Noticing the escalation pattern only in retrospect — after each successive investment was too small to seem alarming on its own but added up to a large total.
IX Coach flags when the resources requested for a goal have increased across successive sessions without commensurate evidence of progress, surfacing escalation before it becomes entrenched.
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