State your confidence level alongside your position
"I’m about 70% confident on this" signals a reasoned estimate, not a fact claim.
Key takeaways
- What it is: "I’m about 70% confident on this" signals a reasoned estimate, not a fact claim.
- Why it works: Expressing degrees of confidence (rather than binary agreement/disagreement) accurately represents the epistemic state of most real beliefs and signals that you are treating claims as updateable estimates rather than identity commitments. This lowers the stakes of the conversation and creates permission for both parties to hold tentative views.
- Evidence: Backed by observational / correlational evidence.
- Avoid: Treating confidence expression as a negotiating tactic — stating low confidence to seem humble while actually holding the view very strongly — which the other person eventually detects.
Why it works
Expressing degrees of confidence (rather than binary agreement/disagreement) accurately represents the epistemic state of most real beliefs and signals that you are treating claims as updateable estimates rather than identity commitments. This lowers the stakes of the conversation and creates permission for both parties to hold tentative views.
How to do it
- 1Before stating a position, mentally estimate how confident you actually are (0–100%).
- 2Express that: "I think this is probably true, but I’m genuinely uncertain about…"
- 3Ask for the other person’s confidence level too — "how sure are you about that?"
What the evidence says
ObservationalCalibration training — learning to match stated confidence to actual accuracy — is an empirically tested practice; research from the Good Judgment Project found calibration training significantly improved forecasting accuracy.
Honest caveat: Calibration research primarily addresses probabilistic forecasting, not interpersonal disagreement; the extension to conversations is principled but not directly studied in that context.
- — Tetlock & Gardner (2015), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Good Judgment Project)
Common mistake
Treating confidence expression as a negotiating tactic — stating low confidence to seem humble while actually holding the view very strongly — which the other person eventually detects.
IX Coach asks you to rate your confidence on key claims, then tracks whether your stated certainty matches how you respond when those claims are challenged.
Practice this with IX Coach →