Map best case, worst case, and most likely case
Write out all three scenarios to reanchor your thinking in the probable, not just the feared.
Key takeaways
- What it is: Write out all three scenarios to reanchor your thinking in the probable, not just the feared.
- Why it works: Anxious thinking has a selective attention bias toward worst-case scenarios, leaving the rest of the probability distribution invisible. Writing out all three cases forces the brain to actively construct outcomes it was ignoring, which shifts the focal point from the tail of the distribution to the center — where the most probable scenario lives.
- Evidence: Backed by randomized trials / meta-analyses.
- Avoid: Writing a "most likely" case that is only slightly better than the worst case because anxiety has contaminated the middle estimate — the most likely case needs to be realistic, not optimistic, but also not catastrophe-adjacent.
Why it works
Anxious thinking has a selective attention bias toward worst-case scenarios, leaving the rest of the probability distribution invisible. Writing out all three cases forces the brain to actively construct outcomes it was ignoring, which shifts the focal point from the tail of the distribution to the center — where the most probable scenario lives.
How to do it
- 1For the situation you are worried about, write out: the best realistic outcome, the worst realistic outcome, and the most probable outcome.
- 2Circle the most probable.
- 3Ask: "Am I planning for and reacting to the most probable, or the worst?"
What the evidence says
RCT / meta-analysisThe three-case mapping is a standard CBT thought-record component targeting selective attention to threat. It is part of validated CBT protocols for generalized anxiety and health anxiety with RCT support.
Honest caveat: The three-case technique is embedded in multi-component CBT programs; isolated evidence for it as a standalone intervention is limited.
Common mistake
Writing a "most likely" case that is only slightly better than the worst case because anxiety has contaminated the middle estimate — the most likely case needs to be realistic, not optimistic, but also not catastrophe-adjacent.
IX Coach walks you through the three-case mapping when you describe a worrying situation, and flags when your "most likely" estimate has drifted toward the worst-case end.
Practice this with IX Coach →